I. Price Trends

Reviewing the April market, the monthly settlement period from the 26th of last month to the present shows that strip steel prices in North China have experienced a volatile downward trend, with the average price dropping nearly 70 RMB/ton compared to the March settlement period. As of late April 2025, the coil and strip markets exhibit stable domestic demand but reduced overseas demand. Domestic supply remains relatively high, and active inventory reduction by enterprises has accelerated regional digestion rates, though disparities are evident. Mismatches between cold/hot-rolled products, strip/coil varieties, and regional markets have led to severe price inversions. Manufacturers’ pre-holiday restocking intentions have yet to materialize, and prices remain weak with continued volatility.

As of 10:10 AM on April 22, the mainstream tax-included warehouse price for hot-rolled 355mm strip steel in Tangshan is 3,160 RMB/ton, down 70 RMB/ton compared to the same period last month. The monthly high-low price range is 110 RMB/ton, indicating widening volatility. According to Mysteel data, the average warehouse price for Tangshan 355mm hot-rolled strip steel from March 26 to April 22 is 3,188 RMB/ton, a decrease of 55 RMB/ton month-on-month (MoM). Assuming prices remain stable from April 22 to 25, the projected average price for March 26 to April 25 is 3,185 RMB/ton, down 56 RMB/ton MoM.

II. Supply

As of April 21:

· Mysteel reports an overall operating rate of 66.67% for hot-rolled strip steel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, up 1.59 percentage points week-on-week (WoW) but down 3.17 percentage points MoM. Capacity utilization stands at 76.17%, up 0.73 percentage points WoW and 5.18 percentage points MoM.

· In Tangshan:

o 145mm strip steel: Operating rate is 42.86% (flat WoW and MoM); capacity utilization is 44.87% (flat WoW and MoM).

o 232mm+ strip steel: Operating rate is 75.00% (up 4.17 percentage points WoW, down 8.33 percentage points MoM); capacity utilization is 83.86% (up 1.06 percentage points WoW and 2.52 percentage points MoM).

III. Inventory

Mysteel data shows that as of April 17:

· National hot-rolled strip steel inventory across key markets totals 720,700 tons, down 35,100 tons WoW, 319,600 tons MoM, and 312,200 tons year-on-year (YoY).

· Tangshan hot-rolled strip steel inventory stands at 323,200 tons, down 10,100 tons WoW, 265,700 tons MoM, and 365,800 tons YoY.

IV. Downstream Demand

As of April 21, apparent demand for hot-rolled strip steel in Tangshan is 847,700 tons this week, down 74,800 tons WoW, 18,900 tons MoM, but up 49,200 tons YoY.

V. Settlement Price Forecast

Based on April’s mainstream mill pricing trends, market sentiment, trading activity, and supply-demand dynamics, Mysteel estimates the following settlement prices for North China strip steel in April:

· Below 350mm: 3,180 RMB/ton

· 351–450mm: 3,190 RMB/ton

· 451–679mm: 3,220 RMB/ton

· 680mm+: 3,230 RMB/ton

Source：https://m.mysteel.com/a/25042214/436686566AC49AF1_abc.html