n the first half of 2026, China's steel coil market operated at low levels under the pattern of "high supply and weak demand," with price centers continuing to shift downward. Meanwhile, exports of deep-processed steel coils such as color-coated and galvanized products grew against the trend, becoming an important growth engine for the industry. Against the backdrop of escalating global trade protectionism, emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East are becoming core breakthroughs for China's steel coil exports.

1.  Market Performance: Low Price Fluctuation and Deepening Supply-Demand Contradiction.In the first half of 2026, the average price of China's hot-rolled coils stood at 3,319.46 yuan/ton, down 1.06% month-on-month from the second half of last year and 0.71% year-on-year from the first half of last year. The market showed remarkable characteristics of "low-level hovering and narrowing amplitude," with the price gap between high and low cold-rolled coils within the year being only 137 yuan/ton.On the supply side, two new rolling lines were put into operation for hot-rolled coils in the first half, continuously expanding the industry's supply scale. As of mid-July, weekly hot-rolled coil output reached 3.0402 million tons, with total inventory climbing to 4.4031 million tons, showing a clear trend of three consecutive weeks of inventory growth. Capacity utilization rate climbed to a nearly three-year high, with high supply pressure continuously suppressing the market.On the demand side, performance was relatively sluggish. Real estate demand weakness is irreversible, demand in traditional infrastructure sectors is weak, and while manufacturing demand is relatively stable, its growth rate has slowed. From May to June, demand showed a tightening trend, with supply-demand contradictions continuously deepening.

2.  Export Market: Color-Coated Steel Coils Grow Against the Trend, Emerging Markets Become Core Engines

Against the backdrop of weak domestic demand, exports have become an important growth pole for the steel coil industry. In Q1 2026, China's color-coated steel coil exports increased significantly by 32% year-on-year, and galvanized steel coil exports increased by 15% year-on-year, with overseas markets becoming the core driving force for industry development.In terms of market distribution, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for 68% of global coated steel consumption, with Southeast Asia firmly ranking as China's largest export market for color-coated sheets with a 39% share, followed by the Middle East and Africa with 27% and 15% respectively. Emerging markets such as ASEAN, South Asia, and Latin America have seen the fastest demand growth.Taking the Philippine market as an example, Chinese color-coated sheets account for about 70% of its imports, with monthly average exports reaching 66,000 tons, of which corrugated color steel accounts for about 65%. Chinese products have strong competitiveness in emerging markets with price advantages 15-20% lower than Japanese and Korean products.

3.  Product Structure Upgrade: High-End and Green Development Become New Trends
While price competition in traditional products intensifies, demand for high-end steel coil products maintains stable growth. Demand for high-quality galvanized sheets and high-strength steel in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and clean energy equipment is growing rapidly.
The International Iron and Steel Institute predicts that global steel demand will show a moderate growth trend in 2026, with growth rate expected between 2.5%-3.5%, mainly driven by the rapid growth of demand for galvanized sheets in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and clean energy equipment.
High-end products such as dual-phase steel and transformation-induced plasticity (TRIP) steel coils are increasingly widely used, playing a key role in automotive lightweighting. Meanwhile, the integration of Industry 4.0 technologies—including real-time quality monitoring systems, predictive maintenance algorithms, and automated coil tracking—is reshaping production efficiency across steel mills.

4.  Escalating Trade Barriers: Structural Divergence in Exports Intensifies
Global steel trade protection continues to escalate in 2026, having differentiated impacts on exports of different types of steel coils. As high-value-added sheet products, thin coils have become the key target of global trade barriers, with comprehensive export restrictions upgraded.
South Korea imposed anti-dumping duties ranging from 22.34% to 33.67% on Chinese galvanized steel sheets starting January 12, 2026, for a period of five years. Turkey also plans to impose anti-dumping duties of 22.37% to 32.40% on Chinese coated steel sheets, valid for five years.
Against this backdrop, structural divergence in exports has intensified: thin coils face increasing pressure, while strip steel is less affected. Enterprises are shifting to markets with relatively low trade barriers such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

5.  Second Half Outlook: Range-Bound Trading Dominates, Structural Opportunities Emerge
Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, the steel coil market is expected to be dominated by range-bound trading. Hot-rolled coils are expected to operate in the range of 3,200-3,600 yuan/ton, with stable manufacturing demand, relatively small inventory pressure, and structural export resilience, overall performance continuing to be stronger than building materials.
Demand is expected to bottom out and rebound in Q3, with concentrated stocking by new energy vehicle and automakers driving phased growth in high-end galvanized demand. Inventory accumulation pressure in Q4 may once again suppress the upside of coated products.
 China's steel coil industry in 2026 is in a period of deep adjustment, with coexistence of traditional overcapacity and emerging demand growth, parallel escalation of trade barriers and market diversification. For foreign trade enterprises, deeply cultivating emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East and increasing exports of high value-added products such as PPGI and PPGL will be the key strategic choice to navigate the cycle.

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